Psych M.D. - Overconfidence


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Term: Overconfidence
Definition (Myers): The tendency to be more confident than correct - to overestimate the accuracy of one's beliefs and judgements.
Definition (alternative): Excessive confidence; too great reliance or trust Dictionary.com
Contextual explanation: Overconfidence is when people overestimate their performance across diverse tasks. An example of overconfidence is when people felt more confident than correct when answering the question: "Is absinthe a liquer or a precious stone?" Respondents mostly felt 75% confident, but only 60% of the people answered this question correctly. People made an incorrect answer 15% of the time even when they felt 100% correct. Such overconfidence can cause people to make wrong decisions. Some examples of this is when Hitler invaded Russia; an overconfident Slobodan Milosovic who barged into Kosovo. Through studies made by psychologists Depaulo and others in 1997, participants, on average, were 57% accurate while being 73% confident about their answer.
Related terms and concepts: Optimism bias, escalating commitment, Lake Wobegon Effect, Dunning kruger Effect, Cognitive Bias
Related websites:
Wikipedia- Overconfidence
Personal Development: Overconfidence
Edited by: Rachel



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